Lectures and seminars LIME talks: Separating hype from reality when a new technology emerges
When an innovation or a new technology emerges, how does one separate hype from reality?
It is commonly observed that the spontaneous emergence of enthusiasm for a new idea, an innovation or a new technology, is suddenly cut-off by an unpredictable, brisk collective disinterest. The intrinsic uncertainty underlying such large amplitude oscillations generates an important source of risks for decision makers such as investors in emerging high tech ventures, and managers and consumers considering the adoption of an innovation.
Dr. Fariba Hashemi is a lecturer at Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETHZ) Switzerland, and affiliated with Karolinska Institutet, Department of LIME, Unit for Bioentrepreneurship since 2012.
Dr. Max Olivier Hongler is Professor Emeritus at the School of Engineering, Microengineering Institute of Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne (EPFL) Switzerland.
Dr. Olivier Gallay is a Full Professor at the Department of Operations, Faculty of Business and Economics of HEC Lausanne, University of Lausanne, Switzerland.
Carl Johan Sundberg, Head of the Dept. of Learning, Informatics, Management and Ethics (LIME), Karolinska Institutet
Paper referred to in this LIME talks
Title: Opinion formation dynamics—Swift collective disillusionment triggered by unmet expectations
Keywords: Innovation diffusion, Collective dynamics, Queuing systems, Hype cycle, Wiener disorder problem, Optimal detection
This paper presents results of a multidisciplinary collaboration addressing two main questions:
- How to stylize, from a multi-agent perspective, the emergence of such collective positive trends for an innovation, followed by sudden disinterest?
- How to detect, as swiftly as possible and considering a given risk for error, the onset of the disinterest phase?
Publication: Physica A (2021)
Authors: Max Olivier Hongler, Olivier Gallay and Fariba Hashemi